Russian Economic Growth for 2010
By RMStaff
Russian Economic Growth
An article posted in the Moscow Times is suggesting that bankers and bureaucrats are offering a disappointing outlook for 2010. Based on the Economic Development Ministry projections, the Russian economy could grow between 1.3 and 3.5% during 2010 (assuming the oil price remains above US $58).
The Economic Development Ministry last week updated the three scenarios for its 2010 economic forecast, with pessimistic growth of 1.3 percent, a baseline scenario of 3.1 percent and possible growth of 3.5 percent if oil prices continue to stay above the $58 per barrel forecast used to calculate the 2010 budget.
While many believe these projections to be pessimistic, and certainly we don’t want to ruin your holiday mood, the overall consensus among people in the business community was that 2010 will include slow but stable economic growth. And even the Russian President has a more opportunistic forecast for the Russian economy in 2010:
And while the Economic Development Ministry may have submitted its best guesses, that hasn’t stopped senior policy makers from offering their macro forecasts for 2010. A number of top officials, most recently President Dmitry Medvedev, have said the economy could grow 5 percent next year — although virtually all have attributed the figure to “experts.”
This is a typical question of whether the glass is half full or half empty. If to compare economic growth in 2009, next year should be a welcome return to stability and growth for Russia. Although expectations are low, expectations around the world are low and Russia is one of the first countries to climb out of recession.
So, as the New Year approaches we want to offer a glimmer of hope, a light at the end of the tunnel, and a road to economic growth and stability that is clearly seen by all.
What is your projection for economic growth in Russia for 2010? Vote Now:
Loading ...Economic Forecasts for 2010
| Indicator | Average | Median | Min / Max |
| GDP, % | 3.3 | 3.3 | -1 / 7 |
| Inflation, % | 8.3 | 8.5 | 5.5 / 11 |
| Industrial Production, % | 4.1 | 4.7 | -3 / 8.2 |
| Fixed capital investment, % | 5.3 | 4.2 | -4 / 20 |
| Retail goods sales, % | 4.2 | 4 | 0.5 / 10 |
| Nominal wages, & | 8.5 | 9.3 | 1.2 / 16.6 |
| Real household incomes, % | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1 / 8.4 |
| Exports, $Bln | 358 | 353 | 290 / 413 |
| Imports, $Bln | 230 | 226 | 184 / 270 |
| Current account balance, $Bln | 56 | 61 | 16 / 103 |
| Capital inflows / outflows, $Bln | 10 | 16.5 | -60 / 60 |
| Direct foreign investment, $Bln | 39 | 45.5 | 6 / 70 |
| Central Bank refinancing rate | 7.9 | 8 | 6.5 / 9 |
| Lending rate to nonfinancial sector | 12 | 12.3 | 10 / 13.6 |
| Increase in lending volume to nonfinancial sector, % | 11.4 | 10 | 6 / 18 |
| Increase in consumer lending volume, % | 9.5 | 7.6 | 2 / 18 |
| Average Urals crude price, $ / barrel | 72.1 | 73.4 | 60 / 90 |
| Ruble / dollar rate at the end of 2010 | 28.4 | 28.5 | 26.2 / 33 |
| Unemployment, % | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7 / 9 |
| Participants: Alfa Bank, Bank of Moscow, BDO Unicon, Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, Citibank, Higher School of Economics’ Development Center, HSBC, ING, Merrill Lynch, Otkritie, Renaissance Capital, Sberbank Macroeconomic Forecasting Center, Troika Dialog, Trust National Bank, UralSib
- Vedomosti |
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